ASPO 2008 Conference – Sacramento, CA, September 21-23, 2008
Powerpoints should be up in the next few days-
Video from2007 aspo in
Conference comments from the Oil Drum
Sunday September 21
--Reporting the Oil Story--
- Improve Media Coverage on the peak oil issue-
- Request meetings with editorial boards
- Ombudsman office
- Black and Latino papers
- Email good articles to everyone you know, including elected officials & friends
- Erica Etelson
- on Berkeley Peak Oil Task Force
- Doesn’t use the word permaculture because she wants to get published
- Neil King- Energy Reporter for the WSJ
- Bart Anderson- Energy Bulletin
- Jan Lundberg- Culture Change- we need to take action without government- we will move towards insignificant state and local government
- Liz Warren- UC Davis thesis- Why are peak oil and other stories not covered in the media?
- I = PAT – Environmental Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology
- Rob Collier- UCB
- “Nothing happening now, but after Jan 21 there is hope”
- Rob and Kunstler debate the LA’ing of China- Rob says it is happening and will continue, Jim responds with it is not possible, Rob says that
- Prosperity can be something that is not consumption.
- Lisa Margonelli- “Oil on the Brain”
- There’s no such thing as cheap gas. Americans believe the right to drive is theirs. No calculation of external costs.
- Electrical shortages in
- ‘Drill baby drill’ – why is this a good idea? The oil is much more valuable later.
Monday September 22
- Debbie Cook- Mayor
- Oil being stolen from
- The only numbers in the report you can trust are the page numbers.
- Ken Verosub- UC Davis
- 20.9 bb – US reserves
- 20 mb/ day – US use (11.7 imported, 9 mb our own)
- 3 bb/ year-
- 7 years- the
- 2015 + - 2yrs
- In 7 years demand will exceed maximum production capacity. Then what?
- “The oil boom is over. We all must get used to a different lifestyle.” King Abdullah of S.A.
- World Oil Usage -
- 30 bb/ yr world usage
- 85 mb/ day
- 3 mb/ hr
- 50,000 b/ minute
- 1,000 b/ second
- Is the USGS Correct- jhallock68@yahoo.com
- Peaks: assuming 1.0 tb used
- 1.9 tb – 2013 – most likely, but even finding 2 tb more only pushes peak out 20 years
- 2.9 tb – 2025
- 4.0 tb – 2034
- Jim Puplava- Financial Sense
- If you let the markets work, in time they will ration through price.
- www.Baylocalize.org- east bay
- www.farmlink.org-
- 5 steps
- Greater sense of urgency required
- Replace EIA- we need honest data
- Develop national energy strategy across the board
- Maximize use of cost effective domestic resources that can be environmentally sound.
- Objectively look at solutions
- CTL – coal to liquid – Fischer-Tropsch process
- Coal is 70% of
- Robert Hirsch- video from 2007 ASPO in Houston
- Peak vs. fluctuating plateau vs onset of decline- begins 2010 to 2013
- 20 years minimum to mitigate-
- Date of peak irrelevant- planning is of utmost importance.
- Where is your money?
- Consider alternate business scenarios
- When peak oil is realized on Wall Street, the effects will be worse and longer than this past week.
- There is no easy fix- please consider your investments
- Panic is needed for real action.
- People and policy makers are too busy with other things until peak oil is forced upon them
- Higher fuel costs and lower tax revenue will cripple state and local governments
- Barriers to spreading the word:
- Other concerns
- War
- Denial
- Faith in technology
- Faith in government, or at least the desire to have faith in our government
- Oil imports is the biggest wealth transfer in history- this will hurt us in the end
- This is a liquids fuels problem
- If our fleets of cars, trucks and planes stop running there will be total anarchy
- New world will be more sustainable in the end
- Remember, transitions will be made in tough times; hopefully we won’t trash the planet.
- Globalization was allowed by cheap oil
- Pragmatism and comprises must be made
- Rising above the past is essential
- Non partisan issue
- James Kunstler, Dennis Hayes, Randy Udall-
- We are really good at measuring things and convincing ourselves we can control what we measure- JHK
- Syndrome of technotriumphialism- indicative of our need to believe in a smooth transition--JHK
- Are we at ‘peak stupidity’? How can we be so close to peak and doing so little about it?
- Until we realize out debt to energy (nukes, coal, oil, food) we will not progress. Our future energy use will flow rather than be from stored energy. RU
- Dealing with population is very hard in a democracy(large democracy)
- Trees have had solar panels for 40 million years and we are just figuring it out.
- In a Zen world we would see that this is the world we want to live in
- Smiley Oil- online videos (at you tube) and teaching tools relating to energy, fuel and other good stuff.
Tuesday September 23
COAL
- Message- we are running out of oil- what are we going to do about it?
- David Hughes- Canadian Geological Survey
- 1972 – half of coal burned has been used since then
- North American way of life cannot be propagated
- We cannot replace hydrocarbons with renewables- consumption must be cut
- First we used wood, the added coal, then added oil, gas, and nukes- we have not phased out any form of energy, only added new ones.
- 33% growth in coal use since 1992
- Conserve hydrocarbons by every means possible- leave them in the ground.
- Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either mad or an economist.
- The term ‘sustainable growth’ is an oxymoron.
- Andy Weissman- Editor In Chief & Publisher, Energy Business Watch
- The demand for LNG will surpass supply about 2012.
- Shortages of electricity will follow, along with high prices to cut demand.
- Jeff Sacks-“What is going on is immoral- the increases in coal use are disastrous- (mercury, CO2, NOx, SOx)
- In a world short on oil, we will use coal.
- Rob Rapier- Accsys Technology PLC
- Ethanol is no good.
- All
- An ethanol subsidization is like a subsidization on fossil fuels
- Cellulosic ethanol will never ramp up. Rob expressed this firmly.
- Politicians and reporters and scientists need to be honest, tell the public what is going to happen
- Increase taxes on carbon
- Stop fighting the oil companies- they are the ones who have been providing us with power, lots of it, for years. They are the only ones who will be able to do so at scale.
- Michael Webber- U Texas,
- Air quality regulations only has us switch which coal we used to low sulfur surface coal from
- Capturing 90% of CO2 has a 30% drop in efficiency
- Pamela Tomski- En Tech Industries
- Consider Maslow’s Pyramid
- Advice- Invest in Freight Railroads
- Randy Udall-
- CCS(carbon capture and storage) is like CPR for the coal industry
- 4 million Chinese went into the coal mines today. Compare that to the 160,000 troops we have in
- ½ of all fossil fuels consumed has been since 1980.
- Americans consume their body weight in petroleum weekly.
- Plentiful fuels(coal) mean that the problem will not go away on its own. We can burn for a long time.
- Earth first. We’ll drill other planets later.
- Peak Oil is a gift to climate change- it may be the only thing that slows down the burn.
- Peak oil will arrive with the subtly of the neutron bomb
- 1975- 80 % of Americans had never flown- we have lived ad ream for the past 30 years.
- Heinberg- big burps of methane from Siberian melting permafrost are signs of a doomsday scenario- 6-8 degree C temp rises.- said at lunch table
- Coal Train Car- about 70 feet, 70 tons full.
- US miles travelled per car- 1980- 10,000. Then in 2005- 15,000.
- US Electric Use for 1 year- 4000 TWH, 2850 TWH from fossil fuels.
- 1-2MW turbine produces 4000 MWH/ yr
- 1 MW installed capacity = 2 GWH/ yr
- US needs 2,000,000 MW to cover all electric, currently at 15,000 MW.
- Wind can never be 100% of the grid, though it can power cars.
- Financial crisis we are in is just a taste of things to come.
- “Aramco will guarantee oil to be delivered to the new oil refineries coming on in
- Talk about economic impact and how legislators are responsible to the people- get them to understand that peak oil is a threat to GDP, employment, taxes, etc.- Rep. Terry Backer- CT.
Notes from the train ride home-
What a great conference. Thanks to Phil J. for helping me get there. There were so many positive folks in the light of such sobering news.
I am not entirely sure how to prepare, and so I will continue to educate myself and hopefully some of the people I interact with, try to live my life aware of my dependence on fuels that will not dominate our culture in the future as they do now. I will try to be humble in sharing what I know and help as best I can in developing this awareness in others. I will not be fooled by headlines and promises of solutions. Those of us left in 50 years are going to have some stories to tell, we will be living more sustainably, that’s for sure. It is time for many of us to rise to the challenge that is before us- to work towards the transition away form fossil fuels. Towards living a more local lifestyle, to treating other humans and species as equals, as the world is not ours, or anyone else’s to exploit.
I feel that the most basic energy form is food. As society begins to crumble and change, disruptions in food distribution is likely. We all need to eat. To ease the despair, denial and hopelessness that often follows learning about peak oil I very much enjoy planting and growing food. Even though what I grow is barely what wind is to our electric grid, I feel a bit more empowered, and I appreciate the effort it takes to get just the daily calories I need for my body to survive, not even counting lights, computer, fridge, and more.
I continue to discuss the issue with anyone who will listen, and hopefully offer their views as well. I pay attention. I live life and enjoy sunrises, sunsets, swimming, and eating- as peak oil will not prevent me from appreciating the beauty that surrounds us all every day.
The train is pulling into
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